Dynasty league football mailbag: Trade values for Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall and more
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As always, any referenced dynasty Trade Analyzer, player ranking or ADP data comes from DynastyLeagueFootball (DLF), the oldest and largest dynasty-centric site on the planet.
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Let’s get to it!
Picking 1.04 in a SuperFlex rookie draft. Is it worth it to try to trade up one spot to 1.03 to get my pick between C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson, or just let the one not taken fall to me at 1.04? That said, which one would you rather have between Stroud/Richardson, and is there that much of a difference of value between the two? — Brett M.
This depends on how much you value Richardson. He’s going at 1.02 often now in SuperFlex formats, so if you are willing to take on his developmental floor, then you should seek a trade up to 1.03. Just for reference, I have two 1.02 selections in rebuilds and will be taking Richardson.
In a 12-team SuperFlex league, I have pick 1.03. Both teams ahead of me are badly in need of a QB. My QBs are Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill and Sam Darnold. My RBs are Saquan Barkley, Rachaad White, Eli Mitchell, Khalil Herbert and Michael Carter. If both the top two picks are QB, do I go for Bijan Robinson or the QB3? — Zach S.
This is not a quarterback draft where I force a selection at the position. I take Bijan Robinson without any delay nor lost sleep. The worst-case scenario is fielding trade offers following the selection.
At what point in this year’s draft would you trade a 2023 first rounder for a solid (top half of the league) team’s 2024 first rounder (SuperFlex/TE premium)? 1.09, after Jordan Addison and Dalton Kincaid are off the board? 1.07? None of the above? — Jesse A
Great question. For me it’s at 1.09 after either Kincaid or Michael Mayer. I may even consider 1.10 after both TEs, as I have them ranked relatively closely for TEP formats.
Picking in the Top 4 of my fantasy draft. I’m not sure of the exact spot — lottery will happen closer to draft day. Right now I have the rookies ranked like this: Anthony Richardson, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bryce Young. Does that seem correct? — Anthony F.
I’d flip Robinson and Richardson. Richardson’s floor to ceiling gap is so wide, I’d prefer to select Bijan knowing that historical odds are more on your side with his selection at 1.01. Richardson has been a popular selection at 1.02. Your other placements are accurate.
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I have pick 1.02 and Justin Herbert is my QB in 1-QB standard league. Assuming Bijan goes first, would Quentin Johnston be too much of a stretch, or does stacking him with Herbert make him a stronger pick than the other rookie receivers or RBs? — Jeff B.
Too much of a stretch for me unless you are either a Chargers fan or absolutely love having a QB/WR stack. For me, 1.02 is a clear Jaxon Smith-Njigba selection. If you really desire Johnston, you’d be safe to trade back to 1.05, and maybe as far as 1.07 depending on your league.
I was banking on Ken Walker being a workhorse for my lineup this year but with Seattle drafting Zach Charbonnet, do you recommend I sell Walker now or hang tight? — Tyler L.
That collective gasp we heard on Day 2 of the draft was from Ken Walker’s dynasty coaches, and for good reason. Seattle loves their running backs as much as they love using all of them. The introduction of Walker into the lineup obviously didn’t change that philosophy. While you could sell out for a high pick or rising player, I’d hold Walker and risk his role as part of a committee.
Is there any scenario where a QB should be drafted 1.01 over Bijan Robinson? My current QBs are Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew, Jameis Winston, Zach Wilson. — Josh B.
Understand that I do not say this lightly: No! There are situations where he may not be the best selection for fit or need on your current roster, but he possesses a big premium in this draft and, at the very least, you select him and then put him up for immediate sale to acquire more draft picks and/or known assets.
I am picking at 1.03 in a SuperFlex league, and expect Bijan Robinson and Anthony Richardson to be off the board. Given my biggest needs are at WR and RB, what return would be enough to justify trading back? — Andrew F.
Well, you will have access to Jahmyr Gibbs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) at 1.03, so it’s still a selection possessing good return value. Use your desire for either of those players to gauge your desire for the players offered in trade. Or, take the risk and trade back to 1.05 or 1.06, if you feel lucky, in that it’s not unlikely one of the two will be available. Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud are both going in the Top 5. You’d be looking for the return selection and either another selection close by or a player equal to that second pick you would get back.
In a league where I built my team around a zeroRB strategy, I had stashed Kenneth Gainwell given his late-season production and knowing Miles Sanders was likely on the way out. Now, given the Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift additions, is it time to sell? If so, what he’s worth? — Alex G.
Gainwell went from being a huge winner to a big loser very quickly and his value is such that he’s now best just to stash and not try to move. Your best hope is in Penny suffering another injury and Gainwell mixing in with Swift, who has been injury prone himself. You won’t get the return on Gainwell to justify trying to move him.
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How should we value Tyler Allgeier now that Bijan is in Atlanta? The team that got Bijan isn’t interested in a handcuff. Another manager is offering the 3.01 pick and I might be able to get Chase Claypool added as well. — Andrew S.
Don’t get me wrong here, I love Bijan Robinson and he’s the clear 1.01, but that doesn’t mean the selection at 1.02 (Smith-Njigba or Anthony Richardson) is far behind. Look at the recent history of running backs and it’s a troubled picture. Robinson is built differently, but Atlanta is transitioning their offense away from run-first, and RBBC usage in the NFL is transitioning to three-back committees in many cases. Allgeier averaged 4.9 yards per carry in his rookie season and I don’t see the team forcing Robinson to shoulder a heavy load and suffer injury. I think the carries will be 60/40 in favor of Robinson but that Bijan will factor as a receiver heavily. An offer of 3.01 and Claypool is a fair, as Allgeier’s premium has dried up. I’m not afraid to hold him, however.
Is 1.01 (Bijan) worth 1.03 and 1.05? — Joe N
Robinson is currently carrying a value return of approximately 2.5 first-round selections, depending on placement/value. Your 1.03 and 1.05 would be right there as fair return. Both selections are high enough to get a deal done if the 1.01 manager is looking for two assets over a single asset. It’s all up to him/her.
I currently hold the 1.09 rookie draft pick. Would you trade for the 2.01 and 2.07? Who would you be aiming to get? SuperFlex PPR. — Felipe A.
On the surface, yes. But, 1.09 is an interesting selection as it’s one away from the tier break for this year’s rookies, meaning that it only takes one off-the-grid pick to push one of the eight players to your 1.09. That said, you need to determine what you need with the 1.09, your likelihood to address that need with the selection, and if you see multiple players to fill that need when you’re on the clock, you trade back. If not, make the pick. I do like this draft between 1.09 and 2.08 or so.
In a rebuild and looking to move Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley for 2024 picks. When do you think is the best time of year to shop them around? And what is a reasonable return for each, in draft picks? — Travs B.
I never hesitate to float players to see what I’ll get in return at any point. During, or just after, a rookie draft can be a good time as managers miss out on prospects. Additionally, if you are rebuilding, it’s important to get those assets off your team before the season kicks off so they aren’t helping your team to win games. But don’t force trades if they don’t benefit you. Pollard could still be producing for three or four more seasons and veteran production anchors are important.
In a 12-team SuperFlex, my QBs are Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers and the Washington QBs. I have the 1.03 and plan to take a QB. Is it worth trying to trade Murray for the 1.02 if I want to compete next year? — Cameron S.
The problem with that strategy is that it’s hard to win with rookie or young quarterbacks at the helm. Rodgers is solid but behind him you’ll have Sam Howell and then a rookie in Anthony Richardson or Bryce Young. The other side of that token is that Murray will likely not be ready when the season kicks off, but I like to play the long game. If you are desiring Richardson, it’s a trade I’d make and I can get there. But don’t expect league-winning performances from rookie quarterbacks. In a vacuum, I’m not a buyer of Murray, so I’m selling.
Single QB league but my QBs are bad. I have the 1.05 … what are the odds that Anthony Richardson will still be there? — Matthew G.
Richardson is rising but I have yet to see him go at 1.05 in a 1QB league. But, it will happen and the chances are growing quickly. I just selected Richardson at 1.06 in the format, which is rare for me. Very little chance at 1.01 – 1.03, but 1.04 could be in play. Determine that manger’s team needs to determine the likelihood, and see about a trade-up possibility. You could always float a little “I want my choice of WR2” smokescreen if needed.
I have three RBs in a dynasty league but probably can only keep two. Kenneth Walker is one I’ll keep. Should I try to trade Jonathan Taylor or Javonte Williams? — Tim D.
I was a big fan of Javonte Williams and was devastated for him (and me) following his injury. He’ll be back this year and he’s young enough to come back strong. That said, I’d plan on letting him go while holding the other two. However, you could float Walker and Taylor just to see what the return offer would be. Of course, Walker’s value has been damaged due to the team’s selection of Zach Charbonnet.
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Current draft picks should always be valued higher than future draft picks since current picks can help you in the upcoming season. However, is next year’s draft class better? — Justin H.
That rule is basically true and 2023 was as close as it came to having a future year worth more than the current year, one year ago. But look how 2023 turned out! It’s a deep class but not top heavy at all, with weak receivers and quarterbacks, and a wide running back range. I do like the prospects of 2024 and I think it will be deeper in the top tiers for dynasty rookie drafts, but I’m not overweighting the class compared to 2023.
Would you trade 1.10, 2.4, and a second rounder next year for 1.13, 2.8 and AJ Dillon? Non PPR, 1QB league. Quentin Johnston is still on board right now for that 1.10 pick. — Ryan G.
In non-PPR, that is a trade I would probably do. You’re picking up a known asset while moving back modestly with two picks. The picks are unknown return values and we already know Dillon’s role is secure in a format built for him.
In a 0.5 PPR, 1QB rookie draft, would you consider trading down from 1.04—1.06 for multiple picks in the second round? — Scott T.
As long as you know Gibbs or JSN won’t fall to you at 1.04, yes I would. But if I needed WR help, I’d either seek a trade for a known asset or strongly consider Addison, Zay Flowers or Johnston at that pick.
In TE premium, would it be worth getting Dalton Kincaid with the 1.05 over the top receivers? Might he end up being a bigger hit down the line? — Andrew W.
Some would say yes, but I’m not a manager who believes enough in reaching for a rookie TE in TEP formats. Just too much history showing it doesn’t pay off. I’d be more likely to trade back in that scenario.
I have 1.02 and 1.12 in a 14-team SuperFlex league and my only remaining QB is Kyler Murray. Obviously taking one of the QBs is worth it, but with my only other QB being out for the first couple of months, is there a world where I take Richardson or Bijan over Stroud if Young goes 1.01? I am also desperate for RBs as I traded Tony Pollard for 1.02. — Brandon D.
That is a tough situation and all signs point to another high selection next year. I play the long game here and don’t try to do too much with one pick. Too many leaks (needs), not enough fingers (picks). Firstly, Bijan and Richardson, in that order, are the first two picks in most SuperFlex rookie drafts right now. Bijan would be my first choice and Richardson my 1.02. I wouldn’t fault you for reversing those two but given the risk-on element of this quarterback class, I’ll take the talent of Robinson and punt on quarterback until 2024.
Given positional tiers and value of each position in dynasty rankings for 2023 and beyond, which three would you be keeping versus looking to trade for picks from the following in a 12-team, half-PPR league: Patrick Mahomes, Stefon Diggs, Garrett Wilson, Nick Chubb, Travis Etienne. — Jordan N.
I would keep Mahomes, Wilson and Etienne, trading Chubb and Diggs. Chubb over Etienne deserves some consideration but I’ll take the youth and upside. Trade the others for picks.
2-QB starters in my dynasty league with only eight teams. I somehow have Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Fields. Which would you recommend trading and what might a package look like? I also have 1.04 and 1.05 in our rookie draft and I’m light on TEs. — Ethan O.
I would trade whoever brought the best offer between Herbert and Fields. Fields is rising quickly now and it’s a good time to capitalize on this spike. In this draft, both are viable for the 1.01 though Herbert is more likely to garner that price. Fields is probably more at 1.02 or 1.03. Herbert’s value would likely also bring additional compensation beyond the 1.01 but that will be very manager dependent.
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Which of these three running backs do you project for the most fantasy relevance in 2023: Zach Evans, DeWayne McBride, Chase Brown or Israel Abanikanda? — Adam T.
I think the greatest risk-reward play would be Chase Brown, playing behind Joe Mixon who is still a cut-candidate this offseason. He has three-down ability though lacks the “it” factor I like to see in my prospects. But “a chip and a chair” is all a rookie running back needs.
How should managers view Javonte Williams? — Matthew L.
I was very much looking forward to watching Williams on Sundays last year. The double ligament tear isn’t good and I think he’ll be challenged to get back before Week 5. I still value him and he’s young enough to have a long career if he can remain off the trainer’s table. For 2023, however, managers should not rely on his production.
1QB PPR league and I pick first in each round. I would have to get my socks knocked off with an offer for me to move pick 1.01. What should I be asking for? My RBs are good and I have fine WR depth, but I’m lacking a true stud. Michael Pittman would be my best WR. — Jamie M.
The rights to Bijan are going for about 2.5 first-round picks in value. That could be two high-firsts or a high-first, plus a low-first and a player. I’d be more likely to draft Robinson and then work any trade from that point. I’d be looking for a pick in the Top 5 this year plus a receiver such as Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb or A.J. Brown.
If you are trying to start a new team/new to dynasty, where is the best place to start? Thanks! — Dakota M.
You’re on the right track by having a subscription to The Athletic! I’d also seek out a dynasty-centric site like DLF, of course. I always recommend both! The primary thing you need to determine is how much youth do you desire on your team and then the skill position make-up of the team. It’s harder to win with very young players who may not produce as well as veteran players. But, if they produce early, they’ll be productive longer. It’s a balancing act. I always try to have at least one developmental player and one veteran producer at each position, and then multiple players in between. That way I always have production and developmental youth cycling through my roster.
Is now the time to sell high on Breece Hall? What would you look for in a 2-for-1? I’m considering offering Hall for Stefon Diggs and Derrick Henry in a win-now move. — Anonymous
That’s tough for me to get my arms around and I’m not a “win-now” coach. I always play the long game. Hall’s value is still very high despite the ACL tear so it’s an option. Henry and Diggs for Hall would be intriguing if you’re all-in for 2023. You’re on the right track and you’d be looking for at least two high-first selections, so I could make a case that Henry and Diggs could be a bit light in value. Both are worth later-first rookie selections. I’d prefer something close to Henry plus CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins or DeVonta Smith — a receiver who still has a longer runway ahead.
I hope you enjoyed this post-draft mailbag. Leave your questions and/or comments below and I’ll be sure to respond. Head over to Twitter and give me a follow: @DLF_Jeff
As always, be happy, be well and, please, be good to each other!
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(Top photo: Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman — USA Today)
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